The crisis in the Ogun State Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) took a new turn with the defection of Governor Gbenga Daniel’s faction to the Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN). Sulaimon Olanrewaju traces the genesis of the crisis and the chances of the party in the April elections.

The crisis in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Ogun State has reached a crescendo. The spine has snapped and the two  factions in the party have had to go their different ways. It is not the best for the party, considering the fact that this is an election year, but it is hardly avoidable. Now, the faction jointly led by Chief Olusegun Obasanjo and Senator Jubril Martins-Kuye remains in the party, while the Chief Gbenga Daniel faction has to seek refuge in another party, Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN).

The problem has been on for a while. According to Governor Daniel, it started in 2006. The problem is not about ideology or principle, it is about control; control of party structure and resources. The pendulum swang different ways at different times.

When Obasanjo held sway as the president of the country, he was fully in charge of the party in the state. The governor had to kowtow to him. But then Obasanjo left office in 2007 and given the fact that his successor, Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, wanted to undo some of the things his predecessor had done, the pendulum of the power swang in the direction of Daniel, especially since the governor had the ears of the late president. The governor began to call the shot in the affairs of the party in the state. He put his own people at the helm of affairs in the party.  That was when Elder Joju Fadairo-led executive was installed. At the time whatever the governor wanted from the party headquarters he got.

But then the unexpected happened, Yar’Adua died suddenly. The first sign of trouble for the governor was that he had no input into the two ministerial nominees from the state. He tried hard to push his own people into the cabinet of President Goodluck Jonathan without any luck. Obasanjo was back into reckoning. He nominated his former Minister of State for Finance, Jubril Martins-Kuye, and Jonathan appointed him. The ministerial nominee of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Dimeji Bankole, was also appointed by Jonathan.

The struggle for power in the state has gone up an octave since early last year with the two factions maintaining different secretariats. Several attempts by the national headquarters of the party to resolve the crisis had been rebuffed by both factions because either felt agreeing to the terms would shortchange it in the scheme of things.

The last straw that broke the camel’s back was the primaries. Each of the two factions, brandishing court judgments, had claimed that it was the authentic one and each prepared its people for the primaries. However, the members sent by the national headquarters to screen those interested in the primaries carried out the exercise at the secretariat of the Daniel’s faction. Initially, the other faction refused to be screened at the secretariat but this later changed and they subjected themselves to screening at the secretariat. According to the faction, they decided to undergo screening at the Daniel’s faction secretariat because the governor, who was the host of the panel, prepared the secretaiat of his faction for them and they knew that unless they were screened they would not be able to participate in the primaries.

However, the factions held their separate primaries in different places. For the gubernatorial primary, the Daniel’s faction had its own at the MKO Stadium, OBJ/JMK faction held its own at the Obasanjo Presidential Library. Not unexpectedly, the two factions had their separate lists of candidates. Governor Daniel won the Ogun East senatorial ticket at the primary organised by his faction. Mrs Lola Edewor-Abiola also won the senatorial ticket for Ogun Central, while Mr Gboyega Nasir Isiaka won the gubernatorial ticket. On the other hand, Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello won the Ogun Central senatorial ticket at the primaries organised by the OBJ/JMK faction while General Adetunji Olurin won the gubernatorial ticket.

Even at this stage, it was not clear which side had the upper hand as both of them claimed that they were recognised by the national headquarters without the national headquarters making any commitment. Then as the deadline for submission of candidates by parties to the INEC drew close, it appeared that the Daniel’s faction had an edge as the national headquarters appeared disposed to taking its list. Sources even said that the PDP national body presented the list to the INEC on the eve of the deadline but the electoral umpire had to turn it down because the other faction had been able to secure an interim injunction from a Federal High Court in Abuja restraining the PDP and the INEC from “announcing or making any pronouncement validating the results of the primaries/ congresses” organised by the Daniel’s faction.

The court order changed everything for the Daniel’s group. With the court order, the other faction became recognised by the INEC as being the authentic one, pending the determination of the case. An attempt by the Daniel’s faction to vacate the order by a Federal High Court in Abeokuta was last Friday rejected by the court.

With the development, Adetunji Olurin and others on the list presented by the OBJ/JMK faction have become the candidates of the party. This was accentuated with the presentation of the party’s flag to him in Ibadan on Tuesday.

This devastated the Daniel faction no end. They see it as the height of injustice given the fact that the governor gave his best to the party and worked tirelessly as the South-West coordinator of Jonathan /Sambo Campaign Organisation to deliver the zone’s delegates to the president at the presidential primary. The faction sees it as using the governor only to dump him at the end. It was so hit by the turn of events that it prevailed on Governor Daniel not to attend the kick off of the PDP’s campaign in the South-West in Ibadan in protest of their treatment in the hands of the party leadership.

In his reaction, Daniel said, “I was about going to Ibadan. You came to block the way and when I asked why, I was told the people of the state are unhappy. I pray that God will take away those who made us angry. We have been ruling Ogun State truthfully and the people appreciate and commend us. But some people came to disorganise things, playing god.”

He added,  “We have fasted and we will break our fast tomorrow (Wednesday). Then you will all know where we are going. I will never lead you astray and I promise that none of your candidates will be substituted.”

The governor made it clear to his followers that he would provide them an alternative platform rather than allow the PDP leadership to thwart their aspirations.

Following that, the governor and his followers have resolved to defect to another party, the Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN).

The story of the new party is as interesting as it is intriguing. According to sources close to the governor, he had sensed that there might be a plan to undermine him in the scheme of things in the state and had therefore taken the precaution of registering the party. It was a wise move that has paid off. Now, the governor and his followers have a platform on which they can seek to be elected in April.

But why go to another party while their case is still in court?
A source in the faction said, “We have no doubt that the case will eventually go in our favour because we are the authentic faction, but we shall lose time if we don’t act now. We may be unable to campaign if we wait for the court to determine the case and that will affect our performance in the elections. That is why we have to take this step.”

Talking about the chances of the party in the general election, a spokesperson of the party said, “We have the people. The people of the state are solidly behind Governor Gbenga Daniel, they will go wherever he goes.”

There is no doubt that the emergence of the new party will change the political calculations in the Gateway State but can the party upstage the PDP and the ACN, which are solidly on the ground?

The gubernatorial candidate of the PDP, General Olurin, and that of the PPN, Gboyega Isiaka, are both from Yewa. The implication of this is that instead of a party getting the bloc votes from Yewa, the votes will be divided between the two parties. Although it may be difficult for the ACN candidate, Ibikunle Amosun, who is from Egba to get bloc votes from the area given the fact that there are many PDP and PPN heavyweights from that area, it is not unlikely that Amosun will have the upper hand in that area.

However, it is Ogun East, comprising Ijebu and Remo, that may likely determine the party that will win the election. Interestingly, the three major parties in the state picked their deputy gubernatorial candidates from the area. Comrade Tunde Oladunjoye of the PDP, Mrs Joko Odunuga-Odeyemi of the PPN and Mr Segun Adesegun are all from the zone and have to work extra hard to ensure victory for their respective parties in that area.

Then Governor Daniel is from that zone and so is Semator Martins-Kuye and a former deputy governor, Alhaji Gbenga Kaka, of the ACN. Each of these political big wigs will want to prove that he is in charge of his territory and no one is sure of what will happen.

There is no doubt that with the new entrant in the state politics, things cannot remain the same in the Gateway State.