As the Adamawa State governorship election holds today, LAWRENCE AMAKU and WALE AKINTUNDE write on the issues and factors that may shape the  election.

Following several postponements in the previous weeks, the much-awaited Adamawa State governorshiop election will eventually hold today, putting to rest all the anxieties and intrigues that preceded it. The poll was  postponed twice after having been earlier slated for January 14 and 18, 2012.

The postponement was due to the one-week labour strike that paralysed economic activities in  the state. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), while giving reason for the postponement had stated in a statement released in Abuja on January 17, that it could not conduct any election in an atmosphere of insecurity, emergency rule or curfew.

Interestingly, today’s election will be taking place under a different atmosphere, owing to the recent ruling by the Supreme Court that sacked five  former state governors including Adamawa State. A critical factor that will change the complexion of the election is the sudden change in the status of the former state governor, Alhaji Murtala Nyako, who is now contesting from outside the state house on the platform of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), after having securred the party’s ticket in the primaries held earlier in the year. He was until the court’s ruling of January 21, 2012 the governor of Adamawa, a factor which many pundits believe would have  otherwise worked in his favour had the election been conducted before the ruling.

Another factor is the ambiance of uncertainty that hovers around the election in the state and the other four states affected by the court ruling. The dust raised by the various litigations and court injunctions sought which later led to complications and almost creating a logjam is yet to settle.

The judgment has also sent out conflicting signals over succession and the pattern the election will take. Many observers are of the view that even the INEC’s intervention, especially in the case of Kogi State and the commission’s insistence that election in the five affected states would go on as scheduled has not brought an end to unfolding drama going on in the states. There are already apprehensions that fresh litigations may bring matters to a tawdry new depths.

Observers are of the view that today’s election will be a straight battle between the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Congress for Political Congress (CPC). More interesting is the fact that it is a parade of political titans and retired military men in the state who have served in the same capacity and other capacities in the past during the nation’s military regime. Prominent among them are Brig-General Muhammed Buba Marwa (retd) of CPC, who is the erstwhile governor of Borno and Lagos states during the military regimes of Generals Ibrahim Babangida and Sani Abacha respectively and his PDP counterpart, Alhaji Murtala Nyako, who had an illustrious career in the Nigerian Navy that saw him rise to the height of Chief of Naval Staff and governor in Niger State in 1989.

Marwa, during his tenure as the military administrator of Lagos State (1996-99), made landmark achievements especially in the area of crime fighting through the famous/special anticrime patrol team known as ‘Operation Sweep.’ In the area of transportation, Marwa also scored a first by being the pioneer of the three-wheeler that still bears his nametag, keke-Marwa, till date. The effort was to mitigate the deprivation Lagosians were daily confronted with in urban transportation.

Marwa, who declared his ambition in Adamawa State on December 15, 2010, had in the recent past, toyed with the idea of running for the office of president before chickening out; a move which is becoming a familiar trajectory on the Nigerian political firmament. The example of Owelle Rochas Okorocha of Imo State will, perhaps offer a ray hope to him and disabuse the minds of critics who dismiss such pursuit as lacklustre and visionless.

On the flip side, some critics are of the view that Marwa’s chances may be hampered by a recent past experience where he was a guest of the EFCC which quizzed him for graft after declaring his ambition for the presidency.

Nyako, on his own part is fighting detractors from many fronts, within and outside the PDP.  Perhaps, a major cog in the wheel of his re-election bid is said to be a senator and PDP chieftain in the state, Professor Jubril Aminu. Recently, Aminu, who is a former Minister for Education and Petroleum Resources during Babangida’s regime, allegedly teamed up with politicians opposed to the re-election bid of Nyako.

Aminu was reportedly sighted at a meeting of some politicians in the state who call themselves the Adamawa Elders Forum, formed to stop Nyako’s re-election. His threat has, however, been dismissed by the state chairman of PDP, Mijinyawa Kugama.

On the other hand, it will not be lost on the PDP the increasing threat/competition from the opposition as the outcomes of the 2011 election in some states manifestly bear evidence to. The growing popularity of the CPC in the North is also another cause for concern to the PDP.

During the count down to today’s poll, the political scene in Adamawa had been tough and interesting. There is no doubt about it that a lot of water has passed under the bridges of all the five political parties in today’s epic battle.

From Yola to Fufore, to Gurin back to Mayo Belwa, to Tongo, Jada, back to Yola. From Yola to Girei, to Song, Gombi, Hong, Mubi, Madagali, Maiha and back to Numan, the campaign trains of all the parties had toured all the nooks and crannies of the state. There is no doubt that many factors will come into play in the decision of the voters about who becomes the next governor of the state.

Adamawa, being a heterogeneous state, the personality of the candidates, religion, ethnicity, geographical area and programmes of the parties could be a few of the indices that will play out today.

Already, various shades of opinions have been formed on each of the candidates long before now. The contestants had accused one another of various degrees of ‘sins’ for example, Nyako had come under very serious attack and condemnation from both Marwa (rtd) and Gundiri. The Nyako Administration had been described, in many ways, as lacking ideas and not being able to justify the huge financial benefits that had accrued to the state since the inception of the administration.

Four years ago, the former governor came in with an intimidating credential. His background and pedigree marketed him to the people, thus, their high expectations at the inception of his administration.

Recently, former President Olusegun Obasanjo at the grand finale campaign rally held at the Ribadu Square reminded the people of how he came before them five years ago to sell the candidature of Nyako to them. “Five years ago, I was here to put Nyako before you, I know him as a military man, an administrator, I also know him as a perfect man. One thing I know about him is that when you give him a job to do, he does it with his might. Over the past four years, governor Murtala Nyako has come to embody the aspirations of the people of Adamawa State to be free from the bondage of politics of cronyism to politics of development, free from the murky politics smear campaigns, to politics of development and also free from sectional politics to an all embarrassing and inclusive politics,” he stated.

Obasanjo also charged the people on the need for continuity saying, “there is no value in changing a winning horse in a race. Here, we have a horse asking for a mandate to carry on to do even more better than before”.

How far all these encomiums poured on Nyako can take him, will be known today. This is against the backdrop of the fact that other political parties and their candidates had dangled irresistible carrots to the electorate through various programmes of free education, free health care services and adequate provision of other social amenities to the people if voted into power.

Having said all these and also weighed the capabilities of the candidates in today’s election in the Sunshine State, one thing is certain it is a strict and straight fight for the seat of the governor of the state. The race to the Dougirei Government House, will be like that of an irresistible force against an immovable object.

Generally speaking, the words on the lips of most people in Adamawa before the Supreme Court judgment was whether other contestants would be able to beat the myth surrounding the power of incumbency in the state in particular. It has happened before in Oyo, Nasarawa, Osun, Ogun, Ekiti, Ondo, Edo and Imo states. Only God knows what to expect of Adamawa state today.